Wishing all my friends a happy and a prosperous new year. May this new year bring all the success and happiness to your life. May all your dreams come true. Happy New Year.
Sunday, December 31, 2017
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Why China and India Want Russia's New Armata Battle Tank ( Credits- World of Weapons)
(Credits- World of Weapons)
Saturday, December 09, 2017
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Thursday, December 07, 2017
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Thursday, November 30, 2017
North Korea- The path to nowhere
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| Image credits- KCNA |
North Korea is at it again. Today they again they test fired another missile, this time speculated to be their ICBM Hwasong-15. The said missile flew above Japan and fell into the Japanese exclusive economic zone. What is different about this test is the fact that the missile seems to have a range of more than 13,000/- kilometres which is enough to cover most of continental United States.
North Korea seems to to be improving on it's missile and nuclear weapon technology. The above test comes soon after a nuclear test by North Korea of a weapon that is seen to be by far their largest to date. What the world especially the USA should worry is the unpredictable nature of the North Korean regime. The North Korean regime has a declared policy of seeing the USA as their principal enemy. That is imprinted in their psyche. North Korea has sene what has happened to Libya and Iraq and how their rulers were disposed by the USA and see nuclear weapons as the only guarantee to deter America. But what has worried the world most is the fact that North Korea is ruled by an inexperienced ruler who does not seem to shy away from a confrontation with America.
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| Credits- KCNA |
The Enigma called North Korea
North Korea is the last frontier. It zealously guards it's privacy and is the most isolated country in the world. Even though there are several stories about gross human rights violations and poverty inside North Korea, nobody seems to have any idea of what is going on. But two ominous occurrences have taken place in the recent days that cast apprehension for the world. One is the recent trend of boats getting into Japanese shores carrying decomp[osed bodies. Even though nobody seems to know what this means, it is speculated that these bodies might be of those who may be trying to leave North Korea or of those fishermen. But what is most shocking is the fact that they seem to be severely malnourished. The second incident concerns that of a North Korean soldier who has escaped to Soth Korea. When he was treated, it has come to notice that he had worms in his stomach that may have come from intake of bad quality food. Now, what do these incidents tell us? It tells us that something is not right inside North Korea. Things seem to be really bad. If things get worse, the ruler Kim may try to create another front and a war may ensue.
The Diplomatic Course
The best path to break a logjam is the Diplomatic Course. But there seems to be little leverage on North Korea with the international community. With each test, the United Nations has imposed sanctions which seems to be tougher and tougher but North Korea seems to be becoming more and more immune to such economic coercive measures. China, which has traditionally been one of the closest allies seems to have lost their leverage. Russia, which is the only other ally also seems to be helpless. There seems to be no incentive to coerce North Korea to back down from this path of nuclearisation.
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| Credits- KSNA |
Is The War Inevitable
It seems the options are running out for the international community. The point of tipping is fast approaching. A time will soon come when the world will be forced to act against North Korea militarily. Such preemptive strike may be required to cap North Korean Weapon program before it becomes stable. But the inevitable cost of war and it's effect on it's neighbours may have deterred the powers from taking such step, but the provocative actions of the Kim regime may, in the end, force the hand of the international community. The ball is in the North Korean court and only time will tell how the story plays out. In the meanwhile, we can only keep our fingers crossed and hope for the best.
Wednesday, November 29, 2017
Tuesday, November 28, 2017
Indo- Pacific, The New Asian Order
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| Indian and Japanese Prime Ministers ( Image credits- Narendra Modi Official) |
After about two months, I am back with a new blog. My job had kept me busy. But in the last two months, the world especially Asia has changed forever. The greatest story to happen in recent years has been the Chinese rise. China has become the factory of the worldmaking anything from mobile to a bicycle. China is the key pillar of the global economy. Until 2010, China's rise was considered to be peaceful. But China decided to stop playing nice. China started it's aggressive policy of expansion starting off with it's nine-dash line in the South China Sea based on some obscure historic claim. It also started claiming territory belonging to it's neighbours extending from India to Vietnam to Japan. China also initiated it's One Belt and Road Initiative that seeks to develop infrastructure and rebuild the ancient Silk Route through land and sea connecting Asia with Africa and Europe. But China's aggressive posture has left many regional powers confused and threatened.
The United States which is the only power capable of countering China is in relative withdrawal. Hence the powers of the region including India, Japan and Australia who by themselves cannot take on China have started an informal discussion for cooperation among themselves ostensibly to check China.
The Importance of South China Sea
The South China Sea is pivotal to international trade as the majority of commodities passes through the region. If China gets the control of South China Sea, she can suffocate regional economies with the blockade. Such a move cannot be accepted at any cost.
Indo-Pacific Region
To effectively counter China, the big weights of the region including India, Australia, Japan and USA has started an informal dialogue. Kown as the Asian Quid, such an initiative was started in 2007 resulting in the Malabar Exercises of 2007 but quickly feel out of favour as China warned Delhi and Canberra not to gang up on China. India and Australia didn't want to antagonize China. They hoped that an appeasement policy will work with China. But their hopes were dashed. They were proved wrong by the subsequent actions of China. China started it's ever expansion. For India, China's ever-growing closeness to Pakistan was a matter of grave concern. China also started the initiative of OBOR that passed through Pak Occupied Kashmir (POK), a territory that is claimed by India. India protested but to no avail. China also started an aggressive land reclamation in the South China Sea and also laid claim to the East China Sea on Islands that is controlled by Japan. All these have laid the seed of apprehension against China in the minds of the nations in the vicinity.
At the same time, America which now understands it's influence diminishing in the region has initiated the quad of democracies. The Asia Pacific has now been relabeled as Indo-Pacific acknowledging the importance of India as a strategic ally and one of the key powers capable of containing China. But yet again, India was not convinced. But then China took the unprecedented step of starting construction on the Chinese-Bhutan border. Bhutan which could not by itself take on China sought India's help and thus the two-month Doklam standoff took place. This has convinced India that Chian cannot be relied upon and it is in her best interest to build mutually productive relationship with like-minded powers in the region.,,
The Asian Quadrilateral
From such a perception was born the Asian Quadrilateral. The Quadrilateral is the grouping of four democracies including India, Japan, USA and Australia which seeks the establishment of free and fair trade and an international order based on mutual self-respect and principles of International law. The quad in itself is in initial stages but has the potential to grow and act as a counterweight to China. Now the ball is in China's court which can take steps to cool off the situation or else it will find itself facing an alliance which has the potential to counter and contain China.
Monday, November 27, 2017
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Are America and India Building an 'Aircraft Carrier' Alliance? (Credits- India Tube)
( Credits- India Tube)
Saturday, November 11, 2017
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Marshal of The Indian Air force Arjan Singh ( 1919-2017)
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| Marshal of The India Airforce Arjan Singh (1919-2017) ( Image credits- Wikimedia Commons) |
There are those who come rarely but leave a mark on our lives and in the process make a difference.
Today, one of the legends of the India Airforce passed away. He was The Marshal of The Indian Airforce Arjan Singh. The title Marshal is only given to those who make a mark for themselves. This title is equal to the Field Marshal in the Army. India Airforce has had only one man who has been conferred this title and that is Marshal of the Indian Airforce, Arjan Singh. Today, as he left us for eternal glory, it is time to celebrate the life and times of this legend.
Marshal of the Indian Air Force Arjan Singh, DFC (16 April 1919 – 16 September 2017) was an Indian Air Force Officer who served as Chief of the Air Staff from 1964 to 1969. After retiring from the IAF, he served as a diplomat, politician, and advisor to the Indian government. In 2002, he became the first and only officer of the Indian Air Force to be promoted to five-star rank as Marshal of the Indian Air Force, equal to the army rank of Field Marshal.
Arjan Singh was born on 15 Apr 1919 in Lyallpur, Punjab (now Faisalabad, Pakistan), what was then British India in a distinguished military family. His father was a Lance Daffadar in the Hodson's Horse at the time of his birth, and retired as a full Risaldar of the Cavalry, serving for a time as ADC to a Division Commander. His grandfather Risaldar Major Hukam Singh belonged to the Guides Cavalry between 1883 and 1917. His great-grandfather, Naib Risaldar Sultana Singh was among the first two generations of the Guides Cavalry enlisted in 1854, he was martyred during the Afghan campaign of 1879. Arjan Singh was educated at Montgomery, British India (now in Pakistan). He entered the RAF College Cranwell in 1938 and was commissioned as a pilot officer in December 1939. As a distinguished graduate of the RAF College, Singh's portrait is now to be found on the walls of the College's west staircase.
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| Arjan Singh as part of the Squadron no-1, RIAF ( Image credits- Wikimedia Commons / Imperial War Museum) |
Singh led No. 1 Squadron, Indian Air Force into combat during the Arakan Campaign in 1944. He was awarded the Distinguished Flying Cross (DFC) in 1944, and commanded the Indian Air Force Exhibition Flight in 1945. Singh almost faced a court-martial in February 1945 when he tried to raise the morale of a trainee pilot (later rumored to be the future Air Chief Marshal Dilbagh Singh) by conducting a low-level air pass over a house in Kerala. In his defense, he insisted that such tricks were needed for every cadet to be a fighter pilot.
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| Arjan Singh as CO of the Squadron no-1, RIAF ( Image credits- Wikimedia Commons / Imperial War Museum) |
He was Chief of the Air Staff (CAS), from 1 August 1964 to 15 July 1969, and was awarded the Padma Vibhushan in 1965. When appointed as Chief of the Air Staff of the Indian Air Force, he was just about 45. At such a young age, he commanded the Air Force in war. He has been the only Chief of the Air Staff to have headed the Air Force for five years as opposed to the regular tenure of two and a half to three years. He also became the first Air Chief Marshal of the Indian Air Force to be upgraded to the position of Air Chief Marshal from the rank of Chief of the Air Staff in recognition of his Air Force’s contribution in the 1965 war. He took retirement from his services in 1970 at the age of 50.
In 1971 (after his retirement) Singh was appointed as the Indian Ambassador to Switzerland. He concurrently served as the Ambassador to the Vatican. He was also appointed as the High Commissioner to Kenya in 1974. He has also remained a member of the National Commission for Minorities and The Government of India (from 1975-1981). He was the Lt. Governor of Delhi from Dec 1989 - Dec 1990 and was made Marshal of the Air Force in January 2002.
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| President Obama meeting Arjan SIngh ( Credits- White House) |
In July 2015, Singh, then aged 96 and wheelchair bound due to a temporary indisposition, was among the many dignitaries to lay a wreath at the base of the coffin carrying the mortal remains of former President A.P.J. Abdul Kalam at Palam Airport. He paid his last respects to President Kalam at Palam Airport on 28 July. On 14 April 2016 at an event to mark the Marshal's 97th birthday, the then Chief of Air Staff Air Chief Marshal Arup Raha announced that Indian Air Force base at Panagarh in West Bengal will be named after MIAF Arjan Singh in honor of his service, and will be called Air Force Station Arjan Singh from then. Singh suffered a massive cardiac arrest in the early morning of 16 September 2017 and was rushed to the Army Hospital, Research, and Referral, in New Delhi, where his condition was stated to be critical. He died at 7:47 p.m. (IST) that evening.
May his soul rest in peace.
Friday, September 15, 2017
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Monday, September 11, 2017
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Tuesday, September 05, 2017
The pariah called North Korea
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| Image credits- VOA |
As North Korea tests a thermonuclear weapon and make rapid advances in Missile technology, it is time to analyse what can be done about this country that has become a head ache for the rest of the world. North Korea has always has been an enigma and a security nightmare for the International Community.
It all began with the demise of the USSR which was North Korea's biggest benefactor and one of it's only ally. After 1991 when the Soviet Union seized to exist, North Korea was in one sweep left with out a guardian. It's economy which was hugely reliant on the Soviet Union was in the verge of crashing. It was also the time when Kim II Sung passed away and his son Kim Jong-il took over the reins of power of this reclusive country. In his regime, North Korea suffered it's worst famine that North Korea has ever faced. His military first doctrine also isolated North Korea from the rest of the world. The economy was also on the verge of collapse due to acute mismanagement. North Korea also started making steady progress in the the nuclear field, thanks mainly the enormous black market that North Korea has made for itself. North Korea was left with only very few friends including China and Russia. Pakistan through their infamous black market helped North Korea develop nuclear weapons. In 2011, Kim Jung-il passed away and the reigns was taken over by his son Kim Jung-un who is more ambitious and unpredictable. Under his reigns, North Korea has seen steady progress in the nuclear and missile field. In the month of August/ September,2017, North Korea conducted various missile and nuclear tests culminating in the test of their ICBM and a thermonuclear weapon, their largest ever. The world is left with a few options to deal with North Korea.
Now let take a walk through the North Korean Nuclear Timeline:
North Korea has a military nuclear weapons program and also has a significant amount of chemical or biological weapons. Since 2003, North Korea is no longer a party to the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT). The country has come under sanctions after conducting a number of nuclear tests, beginning in 2006.
The nuclear program can be traced back to about 1962, when North Korea committed itself to what it called "all-fortressization", which was the beginning of the hyper-militarized North Korea of today. In 1963, North Korea asked the Soviet Union for help in developing nuclear weapons, but was refused. The Soviet Union agreed to help North Korea develop a peaceful nuclear energy program, including the training of nuclear scientists. Later, China, after its nuclear tests, similarly rejected North Korean requests for help with developing nuclear weapons.
Soviet engineers took part in the construction of the Yongbyon Nuclear Scientific Research Center and began construction of an IRT-2000 research reactor in 1963, which became operational in 1965 and was upgraded to 8 MW in 1974. In 1979 North Korea indigenously began to build in Yongbyon a second research reactor, an ore processing plant and a fuel rod fabrication plant.
North Korea's nuclear weapons program dates back to the 1980s. Focusing on practical uses of nuclear energy and the completion of a nuclear weapon development system, North Korea began to operate facilities for uranium fabrication and conversion, and conducted high-explosive detonation tests. In 1985 North Korea ratified the NPT, but did not conclude the required safeguards agreement with the IAEA until 1992. In early 1993, while verifying North Korea's initial declaration, the IAEA concluded that there was strong evidence this declaration was incomplete. When North Korea refused the requested special inspection, the IAEA reported its non-compliance to the UN Security Council. In 1993, North Korea announced its withdrawal from the NPT, but suspended that withdrawal before it took effect.
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| Image credits- VOA |
Under the 1994 Agreed Framework, the U.S. government agreed to facilitate the supply of two light water reactors to North Korea in exchange for North Korean disarmament. Such reactors are considered "more proliferation-resistant than North Korea's graphite-moderated reactors", but not "proliferation proof". Implementation of the Agreed Framework foundered, and in 2002 the Agreed Framework fell apart, with each side blaming the other for its failure. By 2002, Pakistan had admitted that North Korea had gained access to Pakistan's nuclear technology in the late 1990s.
Based on evidence from Pakistan, Libya, and multiple confessions from North Korea itself, the United States accused North Korea of non-compliance and halted oil shipments; North Korea later claimed its public confession of guilt had been deliberately misconstrued. By the end of 2002, the Agreed Framework was officially abandoned.
In 2003, North Korea again announced its withdrawal from the Nuclear Proliferation Treaty. In 2005, it admitted to having nuclear weapons but vowed to close the nuclear program.
On October 9, 2006, North Korea announced it had successfully conducted its first nuclear test. An underground nuclear explosion was detected, its yield was estimated as less than a kiloton, and some radioactive output was detected. On January 6, 2007, the North Korean government further confirmed that it had nuclear weapons.
On March 17, 2007, North Korea told delegates at international nuclear talks that it was preparing to shut down its main nuclear facility. The agreement was reached following a series of six-party talks, involving North Korea, South Korea, China, Russia, Japan, and the United States begun in 2003. According to the agreement, a list of its nuclear programs would be submitted and the nuclear facility would be disabled in exchange for fuel aid and normalisation talks with the United States and Japan. This was delayed from April due to a dispute with the United States over Banco Delta Asia, but on July 14, International Atomic Energy Agency inspectors confirmed the shutdown of North Korea's Yongbyon nuclear reactor and consequently North Korea began to receive aid. This agreement fell apart in 2009, following a North Korean satellite launch.
In April 2009, reports surfaced that North Korea has become a "fully fledged nuclear power", an opinion shared by International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) Director General Mohamed ElBaradei. On May 25, 2009, North Korea conducted a second nuclear test, resulting in an explosion estimated to be between 2 and 7 kilotons. The 2009 test, like the 2006 test, is believed to have occurred at Mantapsan, Kilju County, in the north-eastern part of North Korea.
In February 2012, North Korea announced that it would suspend uranium enrichment at the Yongbyon Nuclear Scientific Research Center and not conduct any further tests of nuclear weapons while productive negotiations involving the United States continue. This agreement included a moratorium on long-range missiles tests. Additionally, North Korea agreed to allow IAEA inspectors to monitor operations at Yongbyon. The United States reaffirmed that it had no hostile intent toward the DPRK and was prepared to improve bilateral relationships, and agreed to ship humanitarian food aid to North Korea. The United States called the move "important, if limited", but said it would proceed cautiously and that talks would resume only after North Korea made steps toward fulfilling its promise. However, after North Korea conducted a long-range missile test in April 2012, the United States decided not to proceed with the food aid.
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| Credits- Internet image/ Author |
On February 11, 2013, the U.S. Geological Survey detected a magnitude 5.1 seismic disturbance, reported to be a third underground nuclear test. North Korea has officially reported it as a successful nuclear test with a lighter warhead that delivers more force than before, but has not revealed the exact yield. Multiple South Korean sources estimate the yield at 6–9 kilotons, while the German Federal Institute for Geosciences and Natural Resources estimates the yield at 40 kilotons. However, the German estimate has since been revised to a yield equivalent of 14 kt when they published their estimations in January 2016.
On January 6, 2016 in Korea, the United States Geological Survey detected a magnitude 5.1 seismic disturbance, reported to be a fourth underground nuclear test. North Korea claimed that this test involved a hydrogen bomb. This claim has not been verified. As described below, a "hydrogen bomb" could mean one of several degrees of weapon, ranging from crude somewhat-enhanced A-bombs to true thermonuclear weapons.
Within hours, many nations and organizations had condemned the test. Expert U.S. analysts do not believe that a hydrogen bomb was detonated. Seismic data collected so far suggests a 6–9 kiloton yield and that magnitude is not consistent with the power that would be generated by a hydrogen bomb explosion. "What we're speculating is they tried to do a boosted nuclear device, which is an atomic bomb that has a little bit of hydrogen, an isotope in it called tritium," said Joseph Cirincione, president of the global security firm Ploughshares Fund. The German source which estimates for all the North Korea's past nuclear test has instead made an initial estimation of 14 kt, which is about the same (revised) yield as its previous nuclear test in 2013. However the yield estimation for January 2016 nuclear test was revised to 10 kt in the subsequent nuclear test from North Korea.
On February 7, 2016, roughly a month after the alleged hydrogen bomb test, North Korea claimed to have put a satellite into orbit around the Earth. Japanese Prime Minister Shinzō Abe had warned the North to not launch the rocket, and if it did and the rocket violated Japanese territory, it would be shot down. Nevertheless, North Korea launched the rocket anyway, claiming the satellite was purely intended for peaceful, scientific purposes. Several nations, including the United States, Japan, and South Korea, have criticized the launch, and despite North Korean claims that the rocket was for peaceful purposes, it has been heavily criticized as an attempt to perform an ICBM test under the guise of a peaceful satellite launch. China also criticized the launch, however urged "the relevant parties" to "refrain from taking actions that may further escalate tensions on the Korean peninsula".
A fifth nuclear test occurred on September 9, 2016. This test yield is considered the highest among all five tests thus far, surpassing its previous record in 2013. The South Korean government had been underestimating the test yield for years (Especially the 2013 test, where South Korea Defense Ministry initially suggests a 6–7 kt yield but has later revised upwards to maximum 9 kt by using the Comprehensive Nuclear Test Ban Treaty Organization’s calculation method when the Chinese academics suggests about 12 kt yield as well as NORSAR estimates the yield to be about 10 kilotons after they have compared the seismic data from all three North Korean nuclear tests.), but has acknowledged that the yield of September 2016 nuclear test is about 10 kt despite other sources suggesting a 20 to 30 kt yield The same German source which has made estimation of all North Korea's previous nuclear tests suggested an estimation of a 25 kiloton yield.
Other nations and the United Nations have responded to North Korea's ongoing missile and nuclear development with a variety of sanctions; on March 2, 2016, the UN Security Council voted to impose additional sanctions against North Korea.
In 2017, North Korea test-launched 2 ICBMs, the second of which had sufficient range to reach the continental United States. In September 2017 the country announced a further "perfect" hydrogen bomb test. The same uncertainty as to the type of weapon tested applies, as it did to the 2016 test.
Over the years due to the crushing embargoes, North Korea's economy has largely become immune to any sanctions. With a wide network of black market, North Korea has almost become self sufficient. There is little impact on sanctions on North Korea. Thus the world is left to grapple with a nuclear power which is also highly secretive, hence highly unpredictable and dangerous. It is time the world took a serious look at North Korea and device ways to contain the country by either carrot or stick. The world has to ensure that the Korean Peninsula doesn't slip to war that will have unprecedented negative impact on the world at large.
Credits- BBC World
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