Monday, March 20, 2017
Sunday, March 19, 2017
Saturday, March 18, 2017
Tuesday, March 14, 2017
Is the Chinese economy moving for a crash?
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| Image credits- Wikimedia Commons / Author- Christophe Meneboeuf |
China is heading for a massive economic crash. Due to the growing credit problems, is the Chinese economy going for a massive crash. The National Interest has dealt the subject in an extensive article. Toread the same, click here
Saturday, March 11, 2017
India resets it's engagement with China
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| Image credits- VOA |
As India resets it's relationship with China entering a face of pragmatic diplomacy where India seek to protect it's vital national interest and stand up to China, The Diplomat examines the issue in detail. You can read the entire article by clicking here
Tuesday, March 07, 2017
Terrorism can derail China's ambitious one road one belt project
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| One road one belt (credits- Internet image) |
As China develops it's one road one belt linking the ancient silk route to Europe, it will need deal with terrorism on the route which has every chance to destroy the entire project. This subject is dealt in detail on the latest article by The National Interest. ( The entire article can be read here)
Saturday, March 04, 2017
How long will Moscow continue to hold on to India to sell it's weapon systems
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| India Russia Joint Military exercise (Image credits- Sputnik News) |
India remains the world's largest importer of weapon systems, it's major chunk coming from Russia. Russia has remained India's largest defence partner. But over the years, India has diversified it's sources to include Israel, USA and France. But even today Russia remains the largest weapons seller to India. Russia has also been trying to diversify it's clientele, but no market can replace the amount of weapon sale that India can and will buy. As India moves to indiginisation of weapon systems, how long Russia will be able to hold on? Russia & India Report argues that it will take India some more decades until it's weapons manufacturing industry matures to a satisfactory level for them to absorb key technologies and deliver world class weapon systems, the time which gives Russia breathing space provided Russia plays their cards correctly. ( The entire article can be read here)
The problems suffered by the powerful Russian Navy
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| Russian Kirov class Battle Cruiser ( Image credits- Wikimedia Commons / United States Navy) |
The Russian navy is now a shadow of it's former self, a mere shadow of the mighty former soviet fleet. The main problem confronting the Russian fleet is it's acute problem with it's ship yards that has become inefficient and also a large discrepancy in the procurement process. The Russian navy is fast transforming itself from a blue water navy to a Green water one, albeit with a deadly fang with long range cruise missiles like the Kalibr. The National Interest discusses the problems faced by the Russian Navy in detail. You can read the entire article here
Friday, March 03, 2017
Has China now laid claim to Hawaii and Pacific?
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| Pearl Harbour ( Image credits- Wikimedia Commons / USN) |
China has been in recent years advancing outrageous claims on lands on the strength of myriad maps and obscure documents which China claims to be authentic but which will not stand the test of International law. On the basis of such claims, The National Interest has an article which advances the argument as to what happens if China claims Hawaii and all of Pacific. Something that can definitely happen. (To read the entire article, click here )
China's loose of it's soft power face
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| Image credits- VOA |
China is emerging as a world power. It supports to build many projects around the world. That is known as the development of soft power. But due to the arrogant nature of the Chinese and their lack of personal skill, China is loosing it's soft power battle,one project at a time. The Diplomat discuss the same in detail in their latest article ( click here to read the entire article)
Thursday, March 02, 2017
CPEC- The opaque view from a Pakistani perspective
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| Image credits- VOA |
( After a break of nearly two months, I am returning to active blogging. To start with, I have decided to deal with CPEC, the most talked about project in South Asia)
China Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) is a collection of projects undertaken by China in Pakistan to connect landlocked Western China to the Arabian sea based Gwadar post in Pakistani Baluchistan. This includes rapid development of infrastructure including roads, railways, power generation projects, industrial parks, special economic zones besides developing Gwadar port. CPEC is termed as a game changer by Pakistan. But doubts still linger in the minds of many. The international monetary fund (IMF) in it's report has warned Pakistan of long term consequences that will bring untold misery to the Pakistani economy due to their inability to repay the loan amount back to China with above normal interest rate.
There is also concern that China will virtually take over the entire Pakistani economy. The first significant measure was their investment in Karachi Stock Exchange where in now they own majority stakes. Then there is the issue of whether other international companies will be allowed to invest in the project. The conditions of the project are still opaque and the government of Pakistan has not allowed the public access to the details of the project. It is also stated that only Chinese companies will be allowed access to invest in the project. So what gain does Pakistan makes from the project is anybody's guess. Besides there are still no details from what Pakistan will gain from allowing Chinese trucks to pass through Pakistan.
In the energy front, China will set up power generation projects mostly run on coal. The environmental impact on Pakistan will be imminence as China is reinstalling these power plants which itself has shut down. Besides, with a free trade agreement too, it is virtual certainty that Chinese goods will flood Pakistani market that will be a death knell to the Pakistani industry who are not technologically advanced enough to withstand the onslaught. Recently a Pakistani senate committee expressed it's apprehension on the project ( as reported by the Dawn Newspaper).
Then there is the big issue of internal security inside which may act as a spoil sport for the project. Pakistan has a long running insurgency is a hot bed of Islamic Terrorism. There has been frequent attacks on the project not only from Islamic militants but also from Baloch nationalists who sees this project as another oppressive movement by Pakistan for which they do not have any gains. Pakistan had to create a separate force to protect the CPEC which is unheard off in any other international projects. The viability of the project is still debated and China may just have invested in a white elephant. Then there is the issue of the CPEC running on the Indian territory which will be an additional challenge to Pakistan and China.
THE GHOST OF HAMBITOTA
When we talk of Chinese investment, one should never forget the experience of Sri Lanka. China undertook massive projects in Hambitota and Colombo for which Sri Lanka agreed to pay back with high interest rate. But Hambitota has proved to be a proverbial white elephant. Sri Lanka has fallen to a debt trap and is now forced to restructure the loan by giving the project to China on a 99 year lease. This in turn allows China to get a lock on the project for the next 99 years including the resources. This is in a way new type of colonisation.
For Pakistan the stakes are much higher. If the Sri Lankan project was just about $10 billion US dollars, for Pakistan the entire project will come to $51 billion US dollars. It is said that on many projects, the interest rate is as high as 12% to 18%. The penal interest will come to around 26%. How Pakistan with it's precarious financial position will repay such a huge amount with interest is anybody's guess. China will demand every last ounce of blood from Pakistan and if Pakistan defaults, China will virtually take over Pakistan. The viability of the project is still debated and it will be decades before we see how the project has turned out to be. If Pakistan manages their finances and allow other international players to also invest, CPEC will be a launching pad for Pakistan for economic prosperity. But if they mismanage, then Pakistan will end up being a Chinese colony without much to look on too with their own industry and economy in shambles. Let us see how things turn out to be.
Wednesday, March 01, 2017
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