Thursday, November 30, 2017
North Korea- The path to nowhere
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| Image credits- KCNA |
North Korea is at it again. Today they again they test fired another missile, this time speculated to be their ICBM Hwasong-15. The said missile flew above Japan and fell into the Japanese exclusive economic zone. What is different about this test is the fact that the missile seems to have a range of more than 13,000/- kilometres which is enough to cover most of continental United States.
North Korea seems to to be improving on it's missile and nuclear weapon technology. The above test comes soon after a nuclear test by North Korea of a weapon that is seen to be by far their largest to date. What the world especially the USA should worry is the unpredictable nature of the North Korean regime. The North Korean regime has a declared policy of seeing the USA as their principal enemy. That is imprinted in their psyche. North Korea has sene what has happened to Libya and Iraq and how their rulers were disposed by the USA and see nuclear weapons as the only guarantee to deter America. But what has worried the world most is the fact that North Korea is ruled by an inexperienced ruler who does not seem to shy away from a confrontation with America.
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| Credits- KCNA |
The Enigma called North Korea
North Korea is the last frontier. It zealously guards it's privacy and is the most isolated country in the world. Even though there are several stories about gross human rights violations and poverty inside North Korea, nobody seems to have any idea of what is going on. But two ominous occurrences have taken place in the recent days that cast apprehension for the world. One is the recent trend of boats getting into Japanese shores carrying decomp[osed bodies. Even though nobody seems to know what this means, it is speculated that these bodies might be of those who may be trying to leave North Korea or of those fishermen. But what is most shocking is the fact that they seem to be severely malnourished. The second incident concerns that of a North Korean soldier who has escaped to Soth Korea. When he was treated, it has come to notice that he had worms in his stomach that may have come from intake of bad quality food. Now, what do these incidents tell us? It tells us that something is not right inside North Korea. Things seem to be really bad. If things get worse, the ruler Kim may try to create another front and a war may ensue.
The Diplomatic Course
The best path to break a logjam is the Diplomatic Course. But there seems to be little leverage on North Korea with the international community. With each test, the United Nations has imposed sanctions which seems to be tougher and tougher but North Korea seems to be becoming more and more immune to such economic coercive measures. China, which has traditionally been one of the closest allies seems to have lost their leverage. Russia, which is the only other ally also seems to be helpless. There seems to be no incentive to coerce North Korea to back down from this path of nuclearisation.
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| Credits- KSNA |
Is The War Inevitable
It seems the options are running out for the international community. The point of tipping is fast approaching. A time will soon come when the world will be forced to act against North Korea militarily. Such preemptive strike may be required to cap North Korean Weapon program before it becomes stable. But the inevitable cost of war and it's effect on it's neighbours may have deterred the powers from taking such step, but the provocative actions of the Kim regime may, in the end, force the hand of the international community. The ball is in the North Korean court and only time will tell how the story plays out. In the meanwhile, we can only keep our fingers crossed and hope for the best.
Wednesday, November 29, 2017
Tuesday, November 28, 2017
Indo- Pacific, The New Asian Order
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| Indian and Japanese Prime Ministers ( Image credits- Narendra Modi Official) |
After about two months, I am back with a new blog. My job had kept me busy. But in the last two months, the world especially Asia has changed forever. The greatest story to happen in recent years has been the Chinese rise. China has become the factory of the worldmaking anything from mobile to a bicycle. China is the key pillar of the global economy. Until 2010, China's rise was considered to be peaceful. But China decided to stop playing nice. China started it's aggressive policy of expansion starting off with it's nine-dash line in the South China Sea based on some obscure historic claim. It also started claiming territory belonging to it's neighbours extending from India to Vietnam to Japan. China also initiated it's One Belt and Road Initiative that seeks to develop infrastructure and rebuild the ancient Silk Route through land and sea connecting Asia with Africa and Europe. But China's aggressive posture has left many regional powers confused and threatened.
The United States which is the only power capable of countering China is in relative withdrawal. Hence the powers of the region including India, Japan and Australia who by themselves cannot take on China have started an informal discussion for cooperation among themselves ostensibly to check China.
The Importance of South China Sea
The South China Sea is pivotal to international trade as the majority of commodities passes through the region. If China gets the control of South China Sea, she can suffocate regional economies with the blockade. Such a move cannot be accepted at any cost.
Indo-Pacific Region
To effectively counter China, the big weights of the region including India, Australia, Japan and USA has started an informal dialogue. Kown as the Asian Quid, such an initiative was started in 2007 resulting in the Malabar Exercises of 2007 but quickly feel out of favour as China warned Delhi and Canberra not to gang up on China. India and Australia didn't want to antagonize China. They hoped that an appeasement policy will work with China. But their hopes were dashed. They were proved wrong by the subsequent actions of China. China started it's ever expansion. For India, China's ever-growing closeness to Pakistan was a matter of grave concern. China also started the initiative of OBOR that passed through Pak Occupied Kashmir (POK), a territory that is claimed by India. India protested but to no avail. China also started an aggressive land reclamation in the South China Sea and also laid claim to the East China Sea on Islands that is controlled by Japan. All these have laid the seed of apprehension against China in the minds of the nations in the vicinity.
At the same time, America which now understands it's influence diminishing in the region has initiated the quad of democracies. The Asia Pacific has now been relabeled as Indo-Pacific acknowledging the importance of India as a strategic ally and one of the key powers capable of containing China. But yet again, India was not convinced. But then China took the unprecedented step of starting construction on the Chinese-Bhutan border. Bhutan which could not by itself take on China sought India's help and thus the two-month Doklam standoff took place. This has convinced India that Chian cannot be relied upon and it is in her best interest to build mutually productive relationship with like-minded powers in the region.,,
The Asian Quadrilateral
From such a perception was born the Asian Quadrilateral. The Quadrilateral is the grouping of four democracies including India, Japan, USA and Australia which seeks the establishment of free and fair trade and an international order based on mutual self-respect and principles of International law. The quad in itself is in initial stages but has the potential to grow and act as a counterweight to China. Now the ball is in China's court which can take steps to cool off the situation or else it will find itself facing an alliance which has the potential to counter and contain China.
Monday, November 27, 2017
Sunday, November 26, 2017
Saturday, November 25, 2017
Thursday, November 23, 2017
Wednesday, November 22, 2017
Tuesday, November 21, 2017
Monday, November 20, 2017
Sunday, November 19, 2017
Wednesday, November 15, 2017
Tuesday, November 14, 2017
Monday, November 13, 2017
Sunday, November 12, 2017
Are America and India Building an 'Aircraft Carrier' Alliance? (Credits- India Tube)
( Credits- India Tube)
Saturday, November 11, 2017
Friday, November 10, 2017
Thursday, November 09, 2017
Wednesday, November 08, 2017
Tuesday, November 07, 2017
Monday, November 06, 2017
Sunday, November 05, 2017
Saturday, November 04, 2017
Friday, November 03, 2017
Thursday, November 02, 2017
Wednesday, November 01, 2017
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